UPS Earnings: Firm Winning Back Domestic Volume Diversions, but 2024 Guidance Disappoints

UPS' fourth-quarter top line fell 8% year over year; slightly below our forecast because of a weaker-than-expected showing for international package volumes. Domestic volumes were mostly in line, as were overall segment yields (revenue per package). Relative to fourth-quarter 2022, lower revenue stems from continued package volume declines, the soft demand and pricing backdrop for truck brokerage (Coyote) and global forwarding, and lower fuel surcharges. That said, we believe core pricing remains positive.