Affiliated Managers Group: Lowering Fair Value to $152 as Equity and Credit Headwinds Persist

Contrary to our initial expectations following narrow-moat Affiliated Managers Group's release of its third-quarter results, we have lowered our fair value estimate for the firm to $152 per share from $159 (as opposed to $144 per share). AMG closed out the September quarter with $635.8 billion in managed assets, down 2.3% on a year-to-date basis and 1.4% year over year. While year-to-date outflows of $23.1 billion were better than the $9.4 billion quarterly run rate for outflows experienced by AMG during 2020-22, they exceeded that level during the June quarter (with $10.5 billion in outflows) and were on par with that average level of outflows during the third quarter.