UPS Earnings: Domestic Package Diversions and New Labor Contract Weigh on Near-Term Outlook

UPS' second-quarter top line fell 11% year over year (removing foreign exchange); below our forecast, largely from lost U.S. domestic package volumes as shippers diverted freight ahead of a threatened Teamsters strike. Relative to second-quarter 2022, the revenue decline stems from lower overall package volumes, rate and demand normalization for the truck brokerage and global forwarding operations, and now-falling fuel surcharges. That said, core pricing remains positive, which we expect to persist.