Tilray Earnings: Shares Up 15% on Return to Profit Growth but Remain Well Undervalued

No-moat Tilray surprised us in its May-ended fourth quarter with net revenue of $184 million and adjusted EBITDA of $22 million. In comparison, our full-year forecast implied $156 million and $14 million, respectively, with its cannabis, beverage, and distribution segments outperforming our expectations. The solid results also seemed to surprise the market, with shares up 15% after the release. Still, due to slightly weaker guidance than our forecast and expected dilution from refinancing pending maturities of convertible debt, we expect to lower our fair value estimates of $6.50 and CAD 9 per share by midsingle digits.