Asian Banks’ Vulnerability to Bank Runs Is Low, but Suddenly Earnings Outlooks Are Under Pressure

Shares of Asian banks in our coverage declined again Thursday morning after Credit Suisse’s 24% drop overnight to below CHF 1.70 per share reignited concerns about global financial stability that emerged last week with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. In terms of systemic risk, we see very low risk of bank runs occurring anywhere in Asia given policy support from each government and the absence of problematic large institutions like Credit Suisse which could become vectors of contagion. Japanese banks are the most susceptible in Asia, in our view, to worries over financial stability in the United States or Europe due to their greater linkages with these regions. Next in terms of vulnerability, in our view, is the Korean banking system, which depends on having access to U.S. dollar liquidity. However, we think the U.S. Federal Reserve, or the Fed, can be relied upon to set up a currency swap arrangement with the Bank of Korea again if needed to ensure stability. The Fed has a continuous unlimited swap agreement with the Bank of Japan.