Market Overreacted to National Instrument Deal News, but Premium Paid Heightens Execution Risk

In our view, Emerson Electric is the undisputed powerhouse in process manufacturing on the west side of the Atlantic. Despite near-term headwinds in fiscal 2020 given low levels of gross fixed investment amid geopolitical uncertainty and COVID-19-related disruptions, we believe Emerson is poised for several years of positive organic growth after a slow recovery in early 2021. Emerson's total addressable automation market, both served and unserved, totals over $200 billion, of which approximately 59% is in hardware and services, 32% in control product software, and 9% stand-alone software. Even as Emerson holds either first or second share in a variety of product categories, share from established firms remains somewhat fragmented (depending on the category, Emerson holds roughly midteens market share), suggesting a large runway for growth.