Reducing Our FVE for Goldman Sachs to $404; Capital Markets Revenue Is Resetting Lower

COVID-19 boosted revenue in 2020 and 2021 with high trading caused by economic uncertainty, and companies issuing debt and equity to initially bolster capital and then later issuing debt and equity to take advantage of low interest rates and a strong stock market. Net revenue should rest from the unusually strong 2021 level, as economic uncertainty reduces capital issuance, corporate mergers, and asset prices. We forecast Goldman Sachs’ revenue could hover around $50 billion over the next couple years compared with nearly $60 billion in 2021.