Maintaining Our $105 FVE for BioMarin Following Q3; We’re Bullish on Two Key Launches

BioMarin reported solid 24% revenue growth in the third quarter, with very strong sales of new achondroplasia drug Voxzogo ($48 million) but lower sales of established rare disease therapies like Vimizim and Naglazyme, as expected, due to the timing government orders. The launch of phenylketonuria drug Palynziq continues to disappoint, with sales of the drug expected to be at the low end of guidance for the year. We’ve lowered our long-term peak sales estimate to less than $500 million, with sales for 2022 on track to reach roughly $250 million. However, this did not have a significant impact on our fair value estimate, which stands at $105 per share. We continue to see BioMarin’s diversified rare disease portfolio and new product launches, particularly Voxzogo and hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian, supporting a narrow moat.