Sanofi’s Discontinuation of Cancer Drug Amcenstrant Is Disappointing, but No Major FVE Impact

Sanofi’s discontinuation of cancer drug amcenstrant does not have a major impact on the firm’s fair value estimate as we had projected peak annual sales for the drug at well below EUR 1 billion annually. However, the string of bad news (including the recent clinical hold on multiple sclerosis drug tolebrutinib) in the late-stage development is concerning. Nevertheless, drug development is risky, and failures are common. We do not see these pipeline setbacks as overly concerning, and we continue to believe Sanofi will be able to develop the next generation of drugs to offset eventual patent losses, which is a key factor supporting its wide moat. Also, the limited patent losses over the next several years also provide time for Sanofi to refill its late-stage pipeline with several early-stage drugs that look encouraging.