BioMarin Boosts Voxzogo Launch Expectations Again in Solid 2Q; Maintaining Our $105 FVE

We're maintaining our $105 fair value estimate for BioMarin following solid second-quarter results, with 6% top-line growth despite a headwind from generic competition to oral PKU drug Kuvan. Sales of newly-approved achondroplasia drug Voxzogo reached $34 million ($54 million year to date), and management has significantly raised full-year sales guidance for the drug to $130 million-$160 million (now encompassing our prior $135 million forecast). Voxzogo is poised to launch in Japan and Australia in the third quarter, building on the ongoing launches in the United States and Europe. BioMarin is also studying the drug in short stature (52-week data in 2023), which could further expand sales of the drug beyond our assumed roughly $1.5 billion in peak sales. Recent data in children under the age of 5 could help expand the U.S. label for Voxzogo, and we’re encouraged by BioMarin’s efforts to improve the product with a pen device (potentially launching in 2024) and long-acting formulations that could keep it competitive with future new treatment options.