Maintaining Our SEK 192 Fair Value Estimate for Swedish Orphan Biovitrum Following in Line Q1 2022

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum's first-quarter results put it on track to meet our expectations for the year, and we're not making any changes to our SEK 192 fair value estimate. We think shares look relatively fairly valued at recent prices. The firm faces hemophilia competition and potential declines in COVID-19-related sales of immunology drug Kineret, but these should be countered by growth in newer products like hematology drugs Doptelet and Aspaveli. In addition, the firm's RSV antibody Synagis had another solid quarter, and next-generation antibody nirsevimab has the potential to serve as prophylaxis for a broader group of infants (partners Sanofi/AstraZeneca are filing in the U.S. in the second half of 2022), which we think should support long-term revenue growth in RSV despite the potential approval of competing RSV vaccines in the next couple of years and cannibalization of Synagis sales. Overall, we think the firm is in the process of building a moat tied to its rare disease business and immunology and hematology expertise.