Maintaining Our $105 BioMarin FVE; 2022 Poised for Strong Growth and Two Key Launches

We're maintaining our $105 per share fair value estimate for BioMarin following steady 2021 financial results and management guidance for double-digit growth and sustainable profitability in 2022. Total revenue was essentially flat in 2021 as declines in PKU drug Kuvan (a mature drug facing generic pressure) countered growth for the rest of BioMarin's portfolio. However, we model 17% top-line growth in 2022, ahead of the 14% implied growth at the midpoint of BioMarin's guidance, thanks to the launch of achondroplasia drug Voxzogo, slower declines for Kuvan, and the potential start for a European launch of hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian. Overall, we continue to see BioMarin's rare disease portfolio and pipeline supporting a narrow moat, and shares remain undervalued.