No-Moat Dick's Sporting Goods' Impressive Run Continues in 2021 Holiday Season; Shares Expensive

Continuing its amazing momentum, Dick’s Sporting Goods revealed an updated 2021 fourth-quarter and full-year sales and EPS outlook that exceeds our expectations. For the quarter, management now anticipates same-store sales growth, EPS, and adjusted EPS of 3.7%-4.7%, $3.00-$3.09, and $3.45-$3.55, respectively, versus our estimates of 3.0%, $2.37, and $2.75. For the year, it anticipates same-store sales growth, EPS, and adjusted EPS of 25.8%-26.1%, $13.70-$13.79, and $15.50-$15.60 versus our estimates of 25.0%, $13.05, and $14.80. Expected adjusted EPS for 2021’s fourth quarter is only slightly below Dick’s full-year 2019 mark of $3.69.