Maintaining our Sobi FVE as Firm Announces Q3 Results

No-moat Swedish Orphan Biovitrum announced third-quarter results on Oct. 11 that were ahead of our expectations, with total third-quarter revenue around SEK 3.76 billion, EBITA of SEK 1.17 billion, and a 31% EBITA margin. These strong results were driven by an early start to the RSV season, which led to earlier use of the firm's RSV prevention antibody Synagis in the U.S., as well as sales of hematology drug Doptelet to China partner Fosun. That said, these sales are not necessarily sustainable, and our SEK 14.9 billion revenue and 35% EBITDA margin forecast for 2021 is still in line with the firm's new, narrowed guidance of SEK 14.5-SEK 15 billion in revenue and 33%-35% EBITA margin. While Sobi will release full details of the quarter's results on Oct. 22, the acceptance period for its acquisition by Agnafit Bidco (which represents the combined interests of U.S. private equity firm Advent and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC) ends on Oct. 21. We continue to assume the deal will go through and maintain our SEK 235 fair value estimate (consistent with the offer price).