Reasonable Stress Test for Intesa Sanpaolo

No-moat Intesa Sanpaolo performed reasonably well under the recent European Central Bank stress test. Its 2023 common equity Tier 1 ratio of 9.4% under the adverse scenario of the stress test is above the 8.6% regulatory minimum that Intesa needs to keep to pay dividends. Its stressed 2023 CET1 ratio was 4.6 percentage points lower than the 14% that Intesa reported for 2020, a similar decline to that of the average European bank we cover. If we compare Intesa’s operational performance under the base and adverse scenarios, revenue held up better than its peer group but it saw a greater increase in loan-loss provisions. We maintain our no-moat rating and EUR 2.70 fair value estimate.