Maintaining Our SEK 181 Fair Value Estimate for Sobi Following Second-Quarter Results

Sobi reported second-quarter results in line with our expectations, and we're not making any changes to our SEK 181 fair value estimate. Specialty care and immunology divisions grew 5% and hematology grew 4%, with double-digit growth for all segments at constant currencies compared with a weak second-quarter 2020 (largely due to last year's COVID-19-related declines in hemophilia product demand and inventory levels). Hemophilia patient growth of 3% (Elocta) and 16% (Alprolix) reflect Sobi's continued solid market share in Europe, despite continued strong share gains from Roche's competing product Hemlibra and Elocta's double-digit pricing pressure (driven by price mandates in Germany). Management maintained guidance for SEK 14 billion-SEK 15 billion in revenue and EBITA margin of 30%-35% despite significant currency headwinds, and our estimates are near the high end of this range. We see 2021 as a transitional year, with price pressure on core hemophilia franchises but new product launches either still early (immunology drug Gamifant and hematology drug Doptelet) or still to come (immunology drug candidates SEL-212 and pegcetacoplan). We do not award Sobi an economic moat, although the firm's recent acquisitions and collaborations have revealed a solid strategy and could begin to drive a positive moat trend if trials and launches are successful.