No-moat Target’s fiscal 2024 first-quarter results landed mostly in line with our expectations and we do not plan to alter our $136 fair value estimate materially. Shares trade in fairly valued territory after shedding about 7% in early trading on May 22.
Given its iconic brand that attracts consumers due to its promise of a more gratifying customer experience compared with other low-cost retailers, we are confident in Target’s ability to drive recurring foot traffic.
Bears
Target lacks the scale and differentiation to drive significant market share across its product categories, since its product offerings lack a clear value proposition.
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Target serves as the nation’s sixth-largest retailer, with its strategy predicated on delivering a gratifying in-store shopping experience and a wide product assortment of trendy apparel, home goods, and household essentials at competitive prices. Target’s upscale and stylish image began to carry national merit in the 1990s—a decade in which the brand saw its top line grow threefold to almost $30 billion—and has since cemented itself as a top US retailer.Today, Target operates over 1,950 stores in the United States, generates over $100 billion in sales, and fulfills over 2 billion customer orders annually. The firm’s vast physical footprint is typically concentrated in urban and suburban markets as the firm seeks to attract a more affluent consumer base.