No-moat Dollar Tree’s fiscal 2024 first-quarter results were uninspiring, and we plan to slightly reduce our full-year comparable sales growth and margin forecast because of the tighter spending environment. However, we don’t expect our $115 per share fair value estimate to be significantly affected.
The new management team brings years of experience, and its revamped capital allocation priorities, particularly surrounding the Family Dollar banner, should drive a material improvement in financial performance.
Bears
Big box retailers have increasingly looked to expand their product assortment by offering items with $1.00 price points, which could add to competitive pressure.
Start a free trial of Morningstar Investor to unlock exclusive ratings and continuous analyst coverage to help you decide if DLTR is a good fit for your portfolio.
Dollar Tree operates discount stores across the United States and Canada, with over 8,400 shops under its namesake banner and 8,350 under Family Dollar. About 47% of Dollar Tree’s sales in fiscal 2023 were composed of consumables (including food, health and beauty, and cleaning products), around 45% from variety items (including toys and homewares), and over 5% from seasonal items. The Dollar Tree banner sells most of its merchandise at the $1.25 price point and positions its stores in well-populated suburban markets. Conversely, Family Dollar primarily sells consumable merchandise (80% of the banner’s sales) at prices below $10. About two-thirds of Family Dollar’s stores are located in urban and suburban markets, with the remaining one-third located in rural areas.