Economy
Morningstar breaks down policies and events that impact the overall economy. Learn about relevant shifts, shocks, and developments in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
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Economic Topics
Inflation
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Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
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What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE Indexes?
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Powell Unfazed By Sticky Inflation, but Rate Cuts Are Far Off
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With Sticky March PCE Inflation, When Will the Fed Hit Its 2% Target?
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Neil Shearing: What You Might Be Missing About the Current Economy
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Markets Brief: Will the New Inflation Story Hurt Stocks?
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What Hot Inflation and Delayed Rate Cuts Mean for Investors
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March CPI Report: Why Is Inflation Still So Sticky?
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March US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.5% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected
Employment
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Job Gains Slow In April, but Too Soon to Say the Trend Has Changed
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April US Jobs Report: 175,000 Rise in Payrolls, Smaller Than Expected
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April Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Still-Strong Hiring
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Why We Expect the Job Market’s Slowdown to Renew in 2024
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Despite Strong Jobs Report, Fed Still Seen on Track to Cut Rates
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March US Jobs Report: 303,000 Rise In Payrolls, Stronger Than Expected
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March Jobs Report Forecasts Show Still-Strong but Slowing Hiring Gains
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Why the February Jobs Report Shows Solid—But Not ‘Hot’—Hiring Gains
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February U.S. Jobs Report: 275,000 Rise in Payrolls, Above Expectations
More in Economy
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2024
Wondering when inflation will go down? We’re optimistic about what’s ahead.
When Will the Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?
Our latest economic forecast for interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth.
What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE Indexes?
Inflation is top of mind for investors, but there’s more than one way to measure consumer prices.
April Jobs Report Forecasts Predict Still-Strong Hiring
With inflation sticky, continued gains in hiring will likely keep Fed rate cuts on hold.
We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates
Our economic forecast is optimistic in the long run thanks to labor supply and productivity expansion.
Markets Brief: AI Leaders Excel In Earnings Season So Far
Tech stocks with an AI advantage outperform, China markets could be stirring, and investors are turning their attention to the Fed.
With Sticky March PCE Inflation, When Will the Fed Hit Its 2% Target?
March PCE inflation index up 2.7%, stronger than expected.
Are You an Investment Historian or a Futurist?
Each approach has its advantages—and drawbacks.
Markets Brief: Stocks Are Starting to Look Cheap Again
Insights into key market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
The Dangerous Myth of ‘The New Normal’
The odds are against those who believe this time is different.
These 4 Charts Show Plunging Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
The hot March CPI report has bond traders significantly paring back rate cuts in 2024.
March US CPI Report Shows Inflation at a 3.5% Annual Rate, Higher Than Expected
Core CPI rises at 3.8% annual rate.
Markets Brief: What Fewer Rate Cuts Could Mean for Stock Valuations
Insights into key market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
Despite Strong Jobs Report, Fed Still Seen on Track to Cut Rates
Inflation data will be key to when the Fed will lower rates.
March US Jobs Report: 303,000 Rise In Payrolls, Stronger Than Expected
Unemployment rate edged down to 3.8%.
Q1 2024 In Review and Q2 Market Outlook
Our analysts put the first-quarter performance trends for stock sectors, bonds, and funds into perspective—and look ahead with a fresh market outlook for the second quarter.
Markets Brief: Why Q1 Was a Triumph for Optimists
Insights into important market performance and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
Morningstar Market Insights: Central Banks, Inflation, and Patient Investing
A look at key market and economic trends from Dan Kemp, Morningstar’s global chief research and investment officer.
Fed on Track for June Rate Cuts and More
We’re looking for deeper rate cuts than the Fed’s dot plot suggests.
Japan Raises Interest Rates for the First Time In 17 Years
Japan’s stock market hit record highs this month. Now the cost of borrowing is in positive territory.