We expect fabless designers, fabs, EDA software, IP, and equipment firms to all experience outsize growth, driven largely by AI demand. These include fabs like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), software design and IP firms like Cadence, Synopsys, and ARM, and equipment providers like ASM and ASML.
AI is also predicted to benefit networking firms (chips and ethernet connections) and memory firms (high-bandwidth memory). We expect double-digit growth for revenue of pure-play foundries under our coverage over the next five years.
This trend is primarily led by TSMC—the foundry’s revenue is projected to grow consistently, reaching approximately $250 billion by 2029. There are other parts of the value chain that will benefit beyond processing chips—we see material growth coming for networking firms (chips and ethernet connections), memory firms (high-bandwidth memory), and equipment firms and foundries (rising complexity).
Capital spending on AI continues to be strong in 2025, though we expect this momentum to slow in 2026 as macroeconomic risks intensify. Major cloud service providers still plan to increase AI-related capital expenditures by 35% to 40% this year, but early signs point to more cautious investment next year.
In the Q2 Semiconductor Manufacturing Pulse, we identify Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. TSM as a dominant force in the chip industry, particularly as a primary beneficiary of AI-related demand.
The firm maintains a strong competitive edge through its cutting-edge technology and premium pricing power factors that support its superior gross margins even during industry downturns. We highlight TSMC as a top investment pick among semiconductor manufacturers because of its broad AI exposure, resilient operations, and ability to outperform peers amid macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainties.