US Housing Market Updates: Q1 2026
How are house supply and demand impacting home prices in 2026?
Housing affordability remains the central obstacle for the US housing market in 2026. The median existing-home price rose 50% between 2019 and 2024, while household income grew far more slowly. Homebuilders are facing a problem: new-home inventory now sits at 10.3 months of supply, well above the historical average of 6.2, limiting price recovery.
According to Morningstar’s analysis, mortgage interest rates are the biggest lever on housing demand right now, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate more than doubling from its 2021 low. Mortgage rates have since eased from their peak, but geopolitical uncertainty and renewed inflation concerns have started pushing rates back. If mortgage rates decline further, Morningstar expects existing-home sales to recover and turnover to increase.
Get the complete picture on US housing heading into the back half of 2026. Morningstar's report gives advisors and wealth managers stock-level insight into real estate market trends to guide client conversations on housing-sector exposure.
