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The Mosaic Co MOS

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Stock XNYS Rating as of
$30.77 +0.56 (1.85%)
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Company Report

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Potash: We See Prices Rising After 2024 and View Mosaic and Nutrien as Undervalued

Seth Goldstein

Potash prices have fallen 75% since reaching an all-time high in April 2022. The price spike was driven by a supply shock from temporarily reduced exports, which, in turn, reduced near-term demand. With supply back to normal levels and demand still recovering, prices overcorrected. Potash now sells at roughly $305 per metric ton, based on World Bank data. This is below what we view as the long-term marginal cost of production. In the near term, prices should remain low. We see the India-Canpotex contract, which informs spot prices, being set at a multiyear low below $300 per metric ton in 2024.

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Price vs Fair Value

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MOS is trading within a range we consider fairly valued.
Price
$30.77
Fair Value
$41.00
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
$53.00
5-Star Price
$84.00
Economic Moat
Xjt
Capital Allocation
Wdyrcpnk

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Mosaic’s K3 Esterhazy potash mine eliminated its historical flooding issues and will move its potash production costs closer to its low-cost Canpotex peer.

Bears

Low-cost phosphate producers such as state-owned OCP in Morocco continue to expand capacity and could take market share from Mosaic over the long term through the pursuit of a volume-over-price strategy.

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Trading Information

Previous Close Price
$30.21
Day Range
$30.15–30.89
52-Week Range
$27.83–42.81
Bid/Ask
$30.36 / $30.99
Market Cap
$9.89 Bil
Volume/Avg
4.0 Mil / 4.8 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
6.54
Price/Sales
0.78
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
2.63%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
2.73%
Total Yield
6.76%

Company Profile

Formed in 2004 by the combination of IMC Global and Cargill's fertilizer business, Mosaic is one of the largest phosphate and potash producers in the world. The company's assets include phosphate rock mines in Florida, Brazil, and Peru and potash mines in Saskatchewan, New Mexico, and Brazil. Mosaic also runs a large fertilizer distribution operation in Brazil through its Mosiac Fertilizantes business, which the company acquired from Vale in 2018.
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Stock Style Box
Mid Core
Total Number of Employees
14,049
Website
https://www.mosaicco.com

Competitors

Valuation

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Metric
MOS
NTR
CF
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
 6.549.8612.00
Price/Book Value
 0.801.152.54
Price/Sales
 0.781.022.35
Price/Cash Flow
 5.656.745.82
Price/Earnings
MOS
NTR
CF

Financial Strength

Metric
MOS
NTR
CF
Quick Ratio
 0.490.463.17
Current Ratio
 1.221.153.81
Interest Coverage
 7.702.8015.50
Quick Ratio
MOS
NTR
CF

Profitability

Metric
MOS
NTR
CF
Return on Assets (Normalized)
 3.84%3.42%10.62%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
 7.25%7.31%25.93%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
 6.10%5.84%12.56%
Return on Assets
MOS
NTR
CF
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