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Nutrien Ltd NTR

Morningstar Rating
CAD 77.86 −0.16 (0.21%)
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Company Report

Potash: We See Prices Rising After 2024 and View Mosaic and Nutrien as Undervalued

Potash prices have fallen 75% since reaching an all-time high in April 2022. The price spike was driven by a supply shock from temporarily reduced exports, which, in turn, reduced near-term demand. With supply back to normal levels and demand still recovering, prices overcorrected. Potash now sells at roughly $305 per metric ton, based on World Bank data. This is below what we view as the long-term marginal cost of production. In the near term, prices should remain low. We see the India-Canpotex contract, which informs spot prices, being set at a multiyear low below $300 per metric ton in 2024.

Price vs Fair Value

NTR is trading at a 120% premium.
Price
CAD 77.86
Fair Value
CAD 13.00
Uncertainty
High
1-Star Price
CAD 313.60
5-Star Price
CAD 92.10
Economic Moat
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Capital Allocation
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Bulls Say, Bears Say

Bulls

Declining arable land per person will force growers to be more productive and should drive growth in a variety of crop inputs.

Bears

Volatile pricing and demand for crop nutrients have characterized Nutrien's business during the past few years, highlighting the cyclical nature of the company's cash flows.

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News

Trading Information

Previous Close Price
CAD 78.02
Day Range
CAD 77.4278.14
52-Week Range
CAD 64.8992.48
Bid/Ask
CAD 77.63 / CAD 78.00
Market Cap
CAD 38.51 Bil
Volume/Avg
768,755 / 1.2 Mil

Key Statistics

Price/Earnings (Normalized)
9.86
Price/Sales
1.02
Dividend Yield (Trailing)
3.68%
Dividend Yield (Forward)
3.80%
Total Yield
4.19%

Company Profile

Created in 2018 as a result of the merger between PotashCorp and Agrium, Nutrien is the world’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity. Nutrien produces the three main crop nutrients--nitrogen, potash, and phosphate--although its main focus is potash, where it is the global leader in installed capacity with a roughly 20% market share. The company is also the largest agricultural retailer in the United States, selling fertilizers, crop chemicals, seeds, and services directly to farm customers through its brick-and-mortar stores and online platforms.
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Agricultural Inputs
Stock Style Box
Large Value
Total Number of Employees
25,900

Competitors

Valuation

Metric
NTR
CF
MOS
Price/Earnings (Normalized)
9.8612.006.54
Price/Book Value
1.152.540.80
Price/Sales
1.022.350.78
Price/Cash Flow
6.745.825.65
Price/Earnings
NTR
CF
MOS

Financial Strength

Metric
NTR
CF
MOS
Quick Ratio
0.463.170.49
Current Ratio
1.153.811.22
Interest Coverage
2.8015.507.70
Quick Ratio
NTR
CF
MOS

Profitability

Metric
NTR
CF
MOS
Return on Assets (Normalized)
3.42%10.62%3.84%
Return on Equity (Normalized)
7.31%25.93%7.25%
Return on Invested Capital (Normalized)
5.84%12.56%6.10%
Return on Assets
NTR
CF
MOS
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Agricultural Inputs Industry Comparables

Ticker
Name
Morningstar Rating for Stocks
Capital Allocation
Economic Moat
Market Cap
CTVA
Corteva IncQvqcwrvVjt$39.0 Bil
NTR
Nutrien LtdBzfzvybyyHflzpn$28.3 Bil
CF
CF Industries Holdings IncLtftwwppPxnqwr$14.1 Bil
MOS
The Mosaic CoBgkxhtzhBvzp$9.9 Bil
FMC
FMC CorpMssshltRrfjx$8.0 Bil
YARIY
Yara International ASA ADRXrdk$7.7 Bil
YRAIF
Yara International ASAGnk$7.5 Bil
ICL
ICL Group LtdGcyk$6.1 Bil
SMG
The Scotts Miracle Gro Co Class ALtstlMdnqdh$3.9 Bil
KPLUF
K+S AGPvw$2.7 Bil

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