BlackRock Earnings: Better Bottom-Line Results Despite Weaker Than Expected Flows and Market Gains

While there was little in wide-moat-rated BlackRock's second-quarter earnings that would alter our long-term view of the firm, we do expect to lower our $810 per share fair value estimate slightly to account for weaker flows and market gains than we were forecasting, which affects our near-term expectations. BlackRock closed out June 2023 with $9.425 trillion in managed assets, up 3.7% sequentially and 11.0% on a year-over-year basis but below our forecast for $9.500 trillion in assets under management. Net long-term inflows of $57 billion during the quarter were below our expectations for $100 billion in positive flows and reflective of annualized organic AUM growth of 2.7% (just under the lower end of our long-term annual organic AUM growth target of 3%-5%). That said, the company did produce annualized organic AUM growth of 5.2% during the first quarter, leaving first-half organic AUM growth near the middle of our long-term forecasted range.