Analyst Note| Kevin Brown |
Healthpeak reported fourth-quarter results that were ahead of our expectations. However, 2021 guidance was in line with our estimates, leading us to believe there will be no material changes to our $32.50 fair value estimate for the no-moat company. Healthpeak reported life science same-store net operating income growth of 7.8%, slightly ahead of our estimate of 7.0%, while medical office same-store NOI grew 1.2%, slightly below our estimate of 1.7%, leading to total same-store NOI growth of 4.2% that was in line with our estimates. While the company has removed senior housing from the same-store pool due to the planned disposition of segment in the coming months, the company reported the segment's declining operations. The pro forma senior housing operating portfolio saw occupancy fall another 150 basis points sequentially to 72.9%, an 11.5% year-over-year drop, that caused senior housing NOI to fall 25.8% in the fourth quarter. The decline in senior housing fundamentals caused adjusted funds from operations to fall 3 cents year over year to $0.41 in the fourth quarter, though that is better than the $0.37 figure we had estimated.