Analyst Note| Matthew Young |
Expeditors International's gross revenue plummeted 44% year over year in the first quarter, short of our expected run rate, though we still think conditions will begin stabilizing in the back half. Recall revenue flipped negative in the fourth quarter following a few years of exceptionally strong volume and pricing growth. We don't expect to materially alter our DCF-derived $104 fair value estimate. The shares are trading in fairly valued territory relative to our longer-term revenue, margin, and free cash flow growth forecasts.