Domain's Network Effects and Moat Weakening Due to Excessive Price Hikes
We expect Domain’s near-term challenges to center on navigating significant volatility in the Australian housing market. After the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Domain received a substantial boost to revenue and profit margins from the booming housing market. We estimate that residential transactions were around a third above trend levels during fiscal 2021 and 2022 and we expect that Domain, as the second-largest real estate listings platform, benefited disproportionately from this event. With the normalization of interest rates, we have seen Domain's residential listings reduce materially, declining 14% in fiscal 2023.