Beach Energy: Production Guidance Downgrade on Poor Weather
No-moat Beach Energy reported lower-than-expected fiscal 2024 third-quarter production, up 4% to 4.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe. However, we read no longer-term implications, our midcycle estimates are unchanged, and our AUD 2.40 per share fair value estimate stands. Higher production from the Otway and Taranaki basins was offset by poor weather in the Cooper Basin. Fiscal 2024 production guidance is consequently reduced by around 4% to 18 mmboe-18.5 mmboe from 18 mmboe-20 mmboe. We lower to a midguidance 18.2 mmboe and our fiscal 2024 earnings per share forecast falls 5% to AUD 0.147.