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TrueCar Forecasts Fifth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales Across the Industry for September 2021

TrueCar Forecasts Fifth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales Across the Industry for September 2021

TrueCar Forecasts Fifth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales Across the Industry for September 2021

PR Newswire

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2021

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,007,396 units in September 2021, down 25% from a year ago and down 8% vs. August 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 12.2 million, down 25% from September 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 899,072 units, down 26% from a year ago and down 8% from August 2021.

"We are starting to see things settle into an equilibrium from a day's supply standpoint. While new vehicle inventory continues to decline, we're also seeing sales drop at a similar rate," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "But low sales do not equate to low demand. Paired with strong demand, low supply continues the trend we have seen since January of declining incentives and higher prices."

"As the industry continues facing chip shortages, it's no surprise that most OEMs are seeing a decline in sales. GM in particular is showing its lowest sales since the start of Covid-19," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

  • Total sales for September 2021 are expected to be down 25% from a year ago and down 8% from August 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for September 2021 are expected to be down 19% from a year ago and down 5% from August 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 42% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 8% from a year ago and up 2.5% from August 2021.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 25% from a year ago at 12.2 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for September 2021 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from August 2021.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.3%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for September 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.


Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,676

31,031

27,602

-4.4%

-4.4%

7.5%

7.5%

Daimler

16,109

22,052

20,351

-27.0%

-27.0%

-20.8%

-20.8%

Ford

145,793

189,375

123,343

-23.0%

-23.0%

18.2%

18.2%

GM

109,203

238,542

134,407

-54.2%

-54.2%

-18.8%

-18.8%

Honda

107,773

127,058

114,656

-15.2%

-15.2%

-6.0%

-6.0%

Hyundai

61,206

55,918

61,175

9.5%

9.5%

0.1%

0.1%

Kia

50,916

55,519

54,009

-8.3%

-8.3%

-5.7%

-5.7%

Nissan

53,179

73,854

67,317

-28.0%

-28.0%

-21.0%

-21.0%

Stellantis

127,773

178,807

137,926

-28.5%

-28.5%

-7.4%

-7.4%

Subaru

40,242

60,103

49,373

-33.0%

-33.0%

-18.5%

-18.5%

Tesla

23,603

20,900

23,140

12.9%

12.9%

2.0%

2.0%

Toyota

158,156

199,126

188,585

-20.6%

-20.6%

-16.1%

-16.1%

Volkswagen Group

36,440

50,482

42,704

-27.8%

-27.8%

-14.7%

-14.7%

Industry

1,007,396

1,351,643

1,095,323

-25.5%

-25.5%

-8.0%

-8.0%


Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

29,111

30,518

27,136

-4.6%

-4.6%

7.3%

7.3%

Daimler

15,063

21,347

19,935

-29.4%

-29.4%

-24.4%

-24.4%

Ford

112,039

151,492

100,159

-26.0%

-26.0%

11.9%

11.9%

GM

95,593

204,032

116,949

-53.1%

-53.1%

-18.3%

-18.3%

Honda

106,746

126,457

114,177

-15.6%

-15.6%

-6.5%

-6.5%

Hyundai

57,256

48,426

56,590

18.2%

18.2%

1.2%

1.2%

Kia

45,686

50,554

52,000

-9.6%

-9.6%

-12.1%

-12.1%

Nissan

48,252

69,591

55,652

-30.7%

-30.7%

-13.3%

-13.3%

Stellantis

105,499

149,675

115,313

-29.5%

-29.5%

-8.5%

-8.5%

Subaru

40,037

59,292

47,532

-32.5%

-32.5%

-15.8%

-15.8%

Tesla

23,438

20,900

23,132

12.1%

12.1%

1.3%

1.3%

Toyota

144,157

189,713

166,955

-24.0%

-24.0%

-13.7%

-13.7%

Volkswagen Group

35,652

50,061

42,093

-28.8%

-28.8%

-15.3%

-15.3%

Industry

899,072

1,217,935

981,187

-26.2%

-26.2%

-8.4%

-8.4%

Fleet Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

513

466

10.2%

10.2%

21.2%

21.2%

Daimler

1,046

705

416

48.4%

48.4%

151.3%

151.3%

Ford

33,754

37,883

23,184

-10.9%

-10.9%

45.6%

45.6%

GM

13,610

34,510

17,458

-60.6%

-60.6%

-22.0%

-22.0%

Honda

1,028

601

479

71.0%

71.0%

114.7%

114.7%

Hyundai

3,950

7,492

4,585

-47.3%

-47.3%

-13.8%

-13.8%

Kia

5,230

4,965

2,009

5.3%

5.3%

160.3%

160.3%

Nissan

4,927

4,263

11,665

15.6%

15.6%

-57.8%

-57.8%

Stellantis

22,274

29,132

22,613

-23.5%

-23.5%

-1.5%

-1.5%

Subaru

205

811

1,841

-74.7%

-74.7%

-88.9%

-88.9%

Tesla

165

-

8



1991.4%

1991.4%

Toyota

13,999

9,413

21,630

48.7%

48.7%

-35.3%

-35.3%

Volkswagen Group

789

421

611

87.3%

87.3%

29.1%

29.1%

Industry

108,324

133,708

114,136

-19.0%

-19.0%

-5.1%

-5.1%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

1.9%

1.7%

1.7%

15.2%

12.8%

Daimler

6.5%

3.2%

2.0%

103.1%

217.5%

Ford

23.2%

20.0%

18.8%

15.7%

23.2%

GM

12.5%

14.5%

13.0%

-13.9%

-4.1%

Honda

1.0%

0.5%

0.4%

101.5%

128.4%

Hyundai

6.5%

13.4%

7.5%

-51.8%

-13.9%

Kia

10.3%

8.9%

3.7%

14.9%

176.1%

Nissan

9.3%

5.8%

17.3%

60.5%

-46.5%

Stellantis

17.4%

16.3%

16.4%

7.0%

6.3%

Subaru

0.5%

1.3%

3.7%

-62.3%

-86.3%

Tesla

0.7%

0.0%

0.0%


1950.4%

Toyota

8.9%

4.7%

11.5%

87.2%

-22.8%

Volkswagen Group

2.2%

0.8%

1.4%

159.5%

51.2%

Industry

10.8%

9.9%

10.4%

8.7%

3.2%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

BMW

2.9%

2.3%

2.5%

Daimler

1.6%

1.6%

1.9%

Ford

14.5%

14.0%

11.3%

GM

10.8%

17.6%

12.3%

Honda

10.7%

9.4%

10.5%

Hyundai

6.1%

4.1%

5.6%

Kia

5.1%

4.1%

4.9%

Nissan

5.3%

5.5%

6.1%

Stellantis

12.7%

13.2%

12.6%

Subaru

4.0%

4.4%

4.5%

Tesla

2.3%

1.5%

2.1%

Toyota

15.7%

14.7%

17.2%

Volkswagen Group

3.6%

3.7%

3.9%


95.3%

96.4%

95.4%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

BMW

3.2%

2.5%

2.8%

Daimler

1.7%

1.8%

2.0%

Ford

12.5%

12.4%

10.2%

GM

10.6%

16.8%

11.9%

Honda

11.9%

10.4%

11.6%

Hyundai

6.4%

4.0%

5.8%

Kia

5.1%

4.2%

5.3%

Nissan

5.4%

5.7%

5.7%

Stellantis

11.7%

12.3%

11.8%

Subaru

4.5%

4.9%

4.8%

Tesla

2.6%

1.7%

2.4%

Toyota

16.0%

15.6%

17.0%

Volkswagen Group

4.0%

4.1%

4.3%


95.5%

96.2%

95.6%

ATP



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$61,391

$59,926

$59,670

2.4%

2.9%

Daimler

$64,782

$58,399

$66,211

10.9%

-2.2%

Ford

$47,532

$43,151

$47,301

10.2%

0.5%

GM

$46,722

$41,812

$44,654

11.7%

4.6%

Honda

$32,223

$30,266

$31,581

6.5%

2.0%

Hyundai

$33,488

$29,602

$32,421

13.1%

3.3%

Kia

$28,717

$26,970

$27,824

6.5%

3.2%

Nissan

$31,594

$28,393

$31,322

11.3%

0.9%

Stellantis

$48,079

$43,238

$47,189

11.2%

1.9%

Subaru

$30,293

$29,860

$31,139

1.5%

-2.7%

Toyota

$36,772

$34,014

$35,489

8.1%

3.6%

Volkswagen Group

$39,733

$40,121

$40,696

-1.0%

-2.4%

Industry

$39,540

$36,710

$38,580

7.7%

2.5%


$2,830


$960



Incentives



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$3,246

$5,120

$4,142

-36.6%

-21.6%

Daimler

$3,039

$5,715

$3,086

-46.8%

-1.5%

Ford

$2,850

$4,539

$2,381

-37.2%

19.7%

GM

$2,314

$5,438

$2,894

-57.4%

-20.0%

Honda

$1,940

$2,468

$1,987

-21.4%

-2.4%

Hyundai

$1,310

$2,708

$1,481

-51.6%

-11.5%

Kia

$2,169

$2,991

$2,236

-27.5%

-3.0%

Nissan

$2,500

$4,491

$2,474

-44.3%

1.1%

Stellantis

$2,987

$5,079

$2,970

-41.2%

0.6%

Subaru

$1,420

$1,844

$1,329

-23.0%

6.8%

Toyota

$1,883

$2,705

$2,145

-30.4%

-12.2%

Volkswagen Group

$2,690

$4,311

$2,763

-37.6%

-2.6%

Industry

$2,326

$4,028

$2,422

-42.3%

-4.0%


-$1,703


-$96



Incentives as % of ATP



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

5.3%

8.5%

6.9%

-38.1%

-23.8%

Daimler

4.7%

9.8%

4.7%

-52.1%

0.7%

Ford

6.0%

10.5%

5.0%

-43.0%

19.1%

GM

5.0%

13.0%

6.5%

-61.9%

-23.6%

Honda

6.0%

8.2%

6.3%

-26.2%

-4.3%

Hyundai

3.9%

9.1%

4.6%

-57.2%

-14.4%

Kia

7.6%

11.1%

8.0%

-31.9%

-6.0%

Nissan

7.9%

15.8%

7.9%

-50.0%

0.2%

Stellantis

6.2%

11.7%

6.3%

-47.1%

-1.3%

Subaru

4.7%

6.2%

4.3%

-24.1%

9.8%

Toyota

5.1%

8.0%

6.0%

-35.6%

-15.3%

Volkswagen Group

6.8%

10.7%

6.8%

-37.0%

-0.3%

Industry

5.9%

11.0%

6.3%

-46.4%

-6.3%

Revenue



Manufacturer

Sep 2021 Forecast

Sep 2020 Actual

Aug 2021 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$39,832,526,549

$49,618,363,778

$42,257,700,022

-19.7%

-5.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Q3 2021

Q3 2020

Q2 2021

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change     
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

85,832

78,634

105,901

9.2%

9.2%

-19.0%

-19.0%

Daimler

61,437

72,868

78,246

-15.7%

-15.7%

-21.5%

-21.5%

Ford

388,053

549,134

472,260

-29.3%

-29.3%

-17.8%

-17.8%

GM

441,307

662,143

683,696

-33.4%

-33.4%

-35.5%

-35.5%

Honda

357,971

388,433

486,419

-7.8%

-7.8%

-26.4%

-26.4%

Hyundai

196,061

174,573

251,081

12.3%

12.3%

-21.9%

-21.9%

Kia

175,024

165,013

218,961

6.1%

6.1%

-20.1%

-20.1%

Nissan

200,952

221,150

298,148

-9.1%

-9.1%

-32.6%

-32.6%

Stellantis

409,427

509,114

482,799

-19.6%

-19.6%

-15.2%

-15.2%

Subaru

139,740

169,446

160,824

-17.5%

-17.5%

-13.1%

-13.1%

Tesla

72,943

55,700

68,259

31.0%

31.0%

6.9%

6.9%

Toyota

572,658

558,449

688,813

2.5%

2.5%

-16.9%

-16.9%

Volkswagen Group

134,470

147,880

204,424

-9.1%

-9.1%

-34.2%

-34.2%

Industry

3,394,494

3,898,745

4,399,779

-12.9%

-12.9%

-22.8%

-22.8%

Retail Unit Sales



Manufacturer

Q3 2021

Q3 2020

Q2 2021

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change      
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

84,198

77,344

101,585

8.9%

8.9%

-17.1%

-17.1%

Daimler

57,447

70,633

75,214

-18.7%

-18.7%

-23.6%

-23.6%

Ford

298,211

437,933

367,942

-31.9%

-31.9%

-19.0%

-19.0%

GM

386,307

584,674

599,919

-33.9%

-33.9%

-35.6%

-35.6%

Honda

354,557

385,991

470,489

-8.1%

-8.1%

-24.6%

-24.6%

Hyundai

183,408

163,795

228,494

12.0%

12.0%

-19.7%

-19.7%

Kia

157,046

155,683

200,793

0.9%

0.9%

-21.8%

-21.8%

Nissan

182,334

204,331

235,778

-10.8%

-10.8%

-22.7%

-22.7%

Stellantis

338,053

435,172

432,993

-22.3%

-22.3%

-21.9%

-21.9%

Subaru

139,028

166,727

157,210

-16.6%

-16.6%

-11.6%

-11.6%

Tesla

72,433

55,348

67,627

30.9%

30.9%

7.1%

7.1%

Toyota

521,970

537,846

601,181

-3.0%

-3.0%

-13.2%

-13.2%

Volkswagen Group

131,559

146,473

189,819

-10.2%

-10.2%

-30.7%

-30.7%

Industry

3,029,489

3,555,541

3,908,541

-14.8%

-14.8%

-22.5%

-22.5%

Total Market Share


Manufacturer

Q3 2021

Q3 2020

Q2 2021

BMW

2.5%

2.0%

2.4%

Daimler

1.8%

1.9%

1.8%

Ford

11.4%

14.1%

10.7%

GM

13.0%

17.0%

15.5%

Honda

10.5%

10.0%

11.1%

Hyundai

5.8%

4.5%

5.7%

Kia

5.2%

4.2%

5.0%

Nissan

5.9%

5.7%

6.8%

Stellantis

12.1%

13.1%

11.0%

Subaru

4.1%

4.3%

3.7%

Tesla

2.1%

1.4%

1.6%

Toyota

16.9%

14.3%

15.7%

Volkswagen Group

4.0%

3.8%

4.6%


95.3%

96.2%

95.5%

Retail Market Share


Manufacturer

Q3 2021

Q3 2020

Q2 2021

BMW

2.8%

2.2%

2.6%

Daimler

1.9%

2.0%

1.9%

Ford

9.8%

12.3%

9.4%

GM

12.8%

16.4%

15.3%

Honda

11.7%

10.9%

12.0%

Hyundai

6.1%

4.6%

5.8%

Kia

5.2%

4.4%

5.1%

Nissan

6.0%

5.7%

6.0%

Stellantis

11.2%

12.2%

11.1%

Subaru

4.6%

4.7%

4.0%

Tesla

2.4%

1.6%

1.7%

Toyota

17.2%

15.1%

15.4%

Volkswagen Group

4.3%

4.1%

4.9%


95.9%

96.2%

95.4%

ATP




Manufacturer

Q3 2021

Q3 2020

Q2 2021

YoY % Change


QoQ % Change

BMW

$59,171

$58,537

$58,759

1.1%


0.7%

Daimler

$63,895

$59,375

$59,272

7.6%


7.8%

Ford

$47,245

$42,937

$42,846

10.0%


10.3%

GM

$45,431

$41,577

$43,628

9.3%


4.1%

Honda

$31,624

$30,157

$31,314

4.9%


1.0%

Hyundai

$32,351

$29,207

$29,730

10.8%


8.8%

Kia

$28,125

$26,111

$28,150

7.7%


-0.1%

Nissan

$31,500

$28,413

$30,644

10.9%


2.8%

Stellantis

$47,641

$42,686

$45,968

11.6%


3.6%

Subaru

$30,795

$30,057

$30,936

2.5%


-0.5%

Toyota

$35,802

$34,037

$35,034

5.2%


2.2%

Volkswagen Group

$40,892

$40,404

$43,086

1.2%


-5.1%

Industry

$38,828

$36,522

$37,613

6.3%


3.2%


$2,306


$1,215




Incentives




Manufacturer

Q3 2021

Q3 2020

Q2 2021

YoY % Change


QoQ % Change

BMW

$3,929

$5,340

$4,713

-26.4%


-16.6%

Daimler

$3,135

$5,621

$3,574

-44.2%


-12.3%

Ford

$2,569

$4,241

$2,564

-39.4%


0.2%

GM

$3,062

$5,515

$4,399

-44.5%


-30.4%

Honda

$2,013

$2,580

$2,167

-22.0%


-7.1%

Hyundai

$1,560

$2,547

$2,102

-38.7%


-25.8%

Kia

$2,336

$3,428

$2,549

-31.9%


-8.4%

Nissan

$2,661

$4,519

$3,502

-41.1%


-24.0%

Stellantis

$2,892

$4,903

$3,522

-41.0%


-17.9%

Subaru

$1,382

$1,851

$1,339

-25.3%


3.2%

Toyota

$1,992

$2,726

$2,219

-26.9%


-10.3%

Volkswagen Group

$2,939

$4,421

$3,730

-33.5%


-21.2%

Industry

$2,478

$3,997

$3,003

-38.0%


-17.5%


-$1,519


-$525




(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-forecasts-fifth-consecutive-month-of-slowing-vehicle-sales-across-the-industry-for-september-2021-301387504.html

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.