Silver's price has more than doubled in 4 years. There may be more room to rise.

By William Watts

Silver outpaces gold for 2025, up more than 55% year to date versus gold's 43.4%

Silver is surging.

Silver futures are on a tear, with the most actively traded contract pressing above $45 an ounce Thursday for its highest close since 2011. History indicates the rally may have room to run, according to research firm SentimenTrader.

Though gold has hogged the headlines in 2025, silver now outpaces the yellow metal for 2025, up more than 55% year to date versus gold's 43.4%, according to FactSet.

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Silver has seen its price more than double over the last four years, according to a SentimenTrader note shared with MarketWatch - marking only the sixth time a move of that magnitude has happened since 1973.

The research firm said that while the sample size is limited, this level of performance has often coincided with secular uptrends for silver. In the chart below, it shows that gains of more than 100% in a four-year period have corresponded with annualized returns of 19.5%, well above those seen at lower levels.

Silver hasn't extended its rally after every such 100%-plus move. In 2006, silver peaked almost immediately and then suffered a 33% drawdown, the firm noted. At the time, silver had one- and two-year gains of over 100% for each time frame.

"Today, having gained 38% over the past year, silver's current one- and two-year momentum stands in contrast to that period, signaling it hasn't accelerated excessively," the note said.

In addition, SentimenTrader noted, silver has seen a four-year high 21 separate times over the past year, a frequency that "points to persistent underlying strength rather than a fleeting rally." Put together, the surge in long-term momentum and repeated breakout activity suggests silver's behavior is consistent with past secular bull runs.

December silver (SI00)( SIZ25), the most active contract, closed at $45.114 an ounce on Thursday, up 92 cents, or 2.1%, for its highest finish since May 2, 2011, when it settled at $46.08 an ounce, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

-William Watts

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09-25-25 1617ET