Caterpillar stock takes a hit after Baird turns bearish, in second downgrade in six weeks
By Tomi Kilgore
Baird's Mircea Dobre cut rating to underperform, after downgrading it to neutral in mid-February
Shares of Caterpillar Inc. fell Monday, after Baird analyst Mircea Dobre turned bearish, citing the belief the construction- and mining-equipment maker was nearing a "cyclical pivot point" that turns what used to be tailwinds to headwinds.
The stock (CAT) fell 0.8% in morning trading, and has shed 4.3% amid a four-day losing streak.
Dobre cut his rating to underperform, after downgrading Caterpillar to neutral on Feb. 14. Dobre lowered his stock price target to $185 from $230, with the new target implying about 15% downside from current levels.
He believes dealer stocking, which has been a tailwind to the construction- and mining-equipment maker's revenue growth, is set for "meaningful deceleration" in 2023 and 2024.
Dobre also expects the positive price/cost spread, or the difference between prices charged and the cost of sales will likely peak in the first quarter.
"[T]he positive gap will very likely diminish as pricing is starting to run into difficult prior year comparisons, note also that on the manufacturing cost side, several key inputs (plate, HRC steel) are once again turning higher limiting further cost downside into 2H23/2024," Dobre wrote in a note to clients.
He expects backlog, which was at near record levels at the end of 2022, to peak in the first quarter, as the pace of quarter-over-quarter growth has decelerated to about 1% in the fourth quarter, from 46% in the third quarter and 55% in the second quarter.
Dobre noted that backlog erosion has a "well-established history of driving subsequent stock underperformance."
And as Caterpillar increases the conversion of backlog to sales, dealer retail sales will "NEED" to accelerate, Dobre said, or excess inventories could build rapidly, which will then lead to production cuts.
But the fact that the stock's current price is "implicitly pricing in meaningful retail sales acceleration," Dobre believes there is room for disappointment as the economy, and therefore user demand, is likely to slow.
Basically, the four factors that have helped drive a TK% gain last year, while the broader stock market fell, "are likely to become headwinds for future stock performance," Dobre wrote.
Caterpillar's stock has lost 10.2% year to date, after rallying 15.9% in 2022. In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average , of which Caterpillar's stock is one of the 30 components, has slipped 2.3% this year after falling 8.8% last year.
-Tomi Kilgore
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-27-23 1137ET
Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.-
Going Into Earnings, Is Eli Lilly Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
-
What’s the Difference Between the CPI and PCE Indexes?
-
5 Stocks to Buy That We Still Like After They’ve Run Up
-
Markets Brief: Stocks Are Starting to Look Cheap Again
-
Will Earnings From These 10 AI Stocks Live Up to the Hype?
-
What’s Happening In the Markets This Week
-
What the Next Bitcoin Halving Means for ETF Investors
-
Going Into Earnings, Is Microsoft a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?
-
Tesla Earnings: Shares Jump on Affordable Models Buzz
-
GE Aerospace Earnings: Fantastic Prospects for Stand-Alone Jet Engine Maker
-
Best Innovative Companies to Own: 2024 Edition
-
Truist Earnings: Expense Control Is Working and Near-Term Capital Flexibility Is Crucial to Growth
-
5 Growth Stocks to Buy From the Best Money Managers
-
Verizon Earnings: Price Increases Drive Solid Wireless Revenue Growth
-
2 Wide-Moat Stocks Trading at Rare Discounts
-
The Best Defensive Stocks to Buy