By Barbara Kollmeyer
Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Cryptos are surging, stocks are at record highs, and money just keeps pouring into what looks like a can't-lose market. Cue the Federal Reserve warning of trouble, even as some argue it supplied the booze for this rager.
In its biannual report released Monday, the central bank cautioned that any shift in animal spirits -- notably among a newbie crowd of younger investors and their flashy trading platforms -- could send this all tumbling down.
"The real risk is that by the end of 2022, we de-correlate so far from reality in the Growth and Quality style that the balloon collapses on itself," says Nordea Investments' senior macro strategist Sebastien Galy, who credits fear of missing out for driving this market higher, even amid a continued worrying mix of growth and inflation.
Onto our calls of the day -- we have two. The first is from the founder of asset-management firm Navellier & Associates, Louis Navellier, who is telling clients he expects the S&P 500 to rise 18% to 20% higher from here by January. That would bring it to about 5,600.
Navellier sees markets cruising "very optimistically" into the holiday season, buoyed by consumers eager to spend pockets stuffed with cash, an accommodative Fed, a just-passed infrastructure bill, 10-year Treasury yields under 1.5% and expected strong economic forecasts for the fourth quarter.
"It's just time to be happy," he told clients Monday.
Our second call is also doing some crystal-ball gazing into next year's potential highs. It comes from UBS, which sees the S&P 500 reaching 5,000 by mid-2022, before taking a breather.
Read: 'Risks of a market bubble are growing,' warns Morgan Stanley
"We see S&P 500 earnings coming in 9% to 10% above consensus until Q2, which is when we expect the index to reach a peak at 5,000. Subsequent earnings downgrades and higher real rates should make for a derating toward 4,850 by end-22, said a team of strategists led by Keith Parker, in a note to clients on Monday.
Parker and his team are targeting 4,650 for the S&P by end 2021. "The S&P 500 rally has further to run in our view, driven by 1) a 10% + rise in forward earnings over the next six months, 2) still strong growth activity, 3) a continued fall in COVID cases, and 4) a decline in the multiple as real yields rise that is more than offset by higher earnings," he said.
But then things start to slow on further tightening of financial conditions, continued cost pressures and slowing second-half growth, which all point to a flattening of earnings per share growth to below trend levels and a "more notable derating in H2 '22." Thus, weighing on the S&P.
Crunching their valuation numbers, Parker and his team see 10% downside for 12-month forward price/earnings on semiconductors, software and services, along with food and staples and retail. "Insurance and materials are moderately more sheltered from valuation headwinds," said UBS.
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General Electric stock is surging after the conglomerate announced plans to split into three publicly traded companies.
Earnings are ahead from Palantir (PLTR), Blue Apron (APRN), SeaWorld (SEAS) and Cardinal Health (CAH), with results from Coinbase (COIN), Krispy Kreme (DNUT) and Toast (TOST) -- its first since the initial public offering -- after the close.
PayPal (PYPL) announced an Amazon.com (AMZN) partnership, but shares are down on a disappointing holiday-quarter outlook. In the gaming space, Roblox (RBLX) is soaring and Zynga (ZNGA) is also up after bullish forecasts.
Robinhood (HOOD) shares are down, after the company said customer data for its mobile trading app was breached last week.
Lingerie and swimwear company Naked Brand (NAKD) is surging on news of a merger with electric-vehicle company Cenntro Automotive.
Retailer Macy's (M) is now offering workers $15-an-hour wages and debt-free schooling.
The latest survey of small-business owners shows them turning even more pessimistic due to labor and supply shortages.
Futures are mixed, with the longest winning streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on the line. The 10-year Treasury yield is dropping after the biggest jump in three weeks. Elsewhere, bitcoin is hovering just under a record $68,000, in a continuing crypto rally some see fueled by low supplies
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Goldman Sachs is also liking the chances of a stock 'melt-up.' In a note to clients, a team led by portfolio strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann sees positive macro surprises and anchored real yields driving up that possibility.
"With the current pricing and the S&P 500 already at our 4700 YE target, we like getting equity exposure via short-dated calls to hedge the risk of a continued equity melt-up," he said. Remember, a call option gives the holder the right to buy an asset.
Here is one of his charts showing that probability viewed by options markets as less likely:
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11-09-21 0711ETCopyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.