Press Release: NMI(R) at 59.9%; January Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R); Business Activity Index at 59.8%; New Orders Index at 62.7%; Employment Index at 61.6%
NMI(R) at 59.9%; January Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R); Business Activity Index at 59.8%; New Orders Index at 62.7%; Employment Index at 61.6%
TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 5, 2018
This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.
TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 5, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 96th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R) .
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management(R) (ISM(R) ) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI(R) registered 59.9 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 102nd consecutive month, at a faster rate in January. The New Orders Index registered 62.7 percent, 8.2 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted reading of 54.5 percent in December. The Employment Index increased 5.3 percentage points in January to 61.6 percent from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56.3 percent. The Prices Index increased by 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 59.9 percent to 61.9 percent, indicating that prices increased in January for the 23rd consecutive month. According to the NMI(R) , 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector reflected strong growth in January after two consecutive months of pullback. Overall, the majority of respondents' comments are positive about business conditions and the economy. They also indicated that recent tax changes have had a positive impact on their respective businesses."
The 15 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in January -- listed in order -- are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Retail Trade; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Accommodation & Food Services. The three industries reporting contraction in January are: Information; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING...
-- "Executive management [is] excited about tax breaks for CapEx purchases in [the] new tax bill." (Information) -- "Month-over-month steady growth, on average, [is] 3 percent on project volume and 1 percent on total revenue."(Construction) -- "Signs of strong growth [in] financial performance expectations given the recent tax changes." (Finance & Insurance) -- "Positive outlook for 2018. We see huge pricing pressure." (Health Care & Social Assistance) -- "Business is starting off solid." (Accommodation & Food Services) -- "First quarter begins slow like 2017, but expect things to pick up later in Q1. Outlook continues to look bright for 2018." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services) -- "Business activity is low due to the continued partial funding [of] bills passed (continuing resolutions)." (Public Administration) -- "Overall, sales velocity looks strong. Some regional differences due to weather conditions, but overall, a strong month." (Wholesale Trade) ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM(R) NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM(R) MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* JANUARY 2018 Index Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing Series Series Percent Series Series Percent Index Index Point Rate of Trend** Index Index Point Jan Dec Change Direction Change (Months) Jan Dec Change NMI(R) /PMI(R) 59.9 56.0 +3.9 Growing Faster 96 59.1 59.3 -0.2 Business Activity/ Production 59.8 57.8 +2.0 Growing Faster 102 64.5 65.2 -0.7 New Orders 62.7 54.5 +8.2 Growing Faster 84 65.4 67.4 -2.0 Employment 61.6 56.3 +5.3 Growing Faster 47 54.2 58.1 -3.9 Supplier Deliveries 55.5 55.5 0.0 Slowing Same 25 59.1 57.2 +1.9 From Inventories 49.0 53.5 -4.5 Contracting Growing 1 52.3 48.5 +3.8 Prices 61.9 59.9 +2.0 Increasing Faster 23 72.7 68.3 +4.4 Backlog of From Orders 50.5 50.0 +0.5 Growing Unchanged 1 56.2 54.9 +1.3 New Export Orders 58.0 56.5 +1.5 Growing Faster 12 59.8 57.6 +2.2 Imports 54.0 52.5 +1.5 Growing Faster 8 58.4 56.5 +1.9 Inventory Sentiment 61.0 62.5 -1.5 Too High Slower 248 N/A N/A N/A Customers' Inventories N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 45.6 42.9 +2.7 Overall Economy Non-Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 101 Growing Faster 96
*Non-Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R) data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM(R) Report On Business(R) data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aircraft Parts; Aluminum Products; Bacon (2); Chemical Products; Copper; Copper Products (6); Copper Wire; #1 Diesel Fuel (8); #2 Diesel Fuel (6); Electrical Equipment; Fuel; Gasoline (6); Labor -- Construction (11); Lumber Products (7); Natural Gas (3); Paper (2); Poly Products; Steel; Steel Plate; Steel Products (4); Transportation Costs and Transportation Services.
Commodities Down in Price
Commodities in Short Supply
Coated Freesheet; Construction Subcontractors; IV Solutions (6); Labor (6); Labor -- Construction (22); and Labor -- Temporary (5).
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
JANUARY 2018 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
NMI(R) In January, the NMI(R) registered 59.9 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 56 percent registered in December, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the 96th consecutive month. A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting.
An NMI(R) above 49 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January NMI(R) indicates growth for the 101st consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 96th consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the NMI(R) and the overall economy indicates that the NMI(R) for January (59.9 percent) corresponds to a 4.0 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."
Month NMI(R) Month NMI(R) Jan 2018 59.9 Jul 2017 54.3 Dec 2017 56.0 Jun 2017 57.2 Nov 2017 57.3 May 2017 57.1 Oct 2017 59.8 Apr 2017 57.3 Sep 2017 59.4 Mar 2017 55.6 Aug 2017 55.2 Feb 2017 57.4 Average for 12 months -- 57.2 High -- 59.9 Low -- 54.3
ISM(R) 's Business Activity Index registered 59.8 percent in January, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.8 percent. This represents growth in business activity for the 102nd consecutive month. Eleven industries reported increased business activity, and seven industries reported decreased activity for the month of January. Comments from respondents include: "Post holiday pickup" and "New customer dollars available for spending in [the] new year."
The 11 industries reporting growth of business activity in January -- listed in order -- are: Mining; Utilities; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Management of Companies & Support Services. The seven industries reporting a decrease in business activity in January -- listed in order -- are: Information; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.
Business Activity %Higher %Same %Lower Index Jan 2018 31 48 21 59.8 Dec 2017 29 52 19 57.8 Nov 2017 32 57 11 61.1 Oct 2017 34 53 13 61.5
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2018 10:15 ET (15:15 GMT)Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.