Corn Futures Fall on Higher U.S. Yield Projection - Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

--Corn for December delivery fell 1%, to $4.60 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday on weather conditions that support higher yield figures.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.1%, to $11.76 3/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for September delivery rose 0.9%, to $6.64 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Center Stage: StoneX projecting a 1.8 bushel per acre increase in corn yields from where the USDA saw them in July triggered a slide in most-active corn futures. "The larger yield figure in corn was a bearish surprise and has weighed on values despite a private export sales announcement," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. StoneX's estimate pegged the average corn yield at 184.8 bushels an acre, versus the USDA's last forecast of 183 bushels an acre.

Selling Spree: The USDA announced a new flash sale, this time of corn exports to Mexico. In total the USDA said that 120,000 metric tons have been sold--with 30,000 tons sold for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year and the remaining 90,000 tons sold for delivery in 2027/28. It is the latest flash sale reported by the USDA this week, after reporting a sale of soybeans to China on Tuesday.

Blame it on the Rain: Rainfall continues to move through U.S. growing areas, easing heat stress that set in for crops over the last month. "Midwest coverage should be mostly solid over the next five days, except for the far northwestern Corn Belt," said Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "Iowa and Illinois, the two largest U.S. corn and soybean producers, are expected to receive rainfall through the rest of the week." Davis adds that temperatures should cool over the next 6-10 days, with precipitation continuing.

INSIGHT

Plumbing the Depths: Some traders see grain futures as looking to go lower ahead of any volatility stemming from the August WASDE. "The backtracking by grain futures makes it seem that they may be wanting to test some key support levels before the August WASDE," said AgMarket.net in a note. The exception is with wheat, although the firm also notes that geopolitical volatility has played less of a role this week than it did last week.

Mammoth Movement: Analysts with Hedgepoint Global said they expect Brazil's corn output to be around 140 million metric tons this year. That would be 2 million tons--more than forecast by the USDA in its last WASDE report. Brazil is one of the biggest competitors with America in terms of supplying the world corn and soybeans.

--Zoetis Inc. will release its second quarter 2026 earnings report at 7 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 05, 2026 15:27 ET (19:27 GMT)