Canada Existing Home Sales Edge Up in June; Expected to Dip This Year

By Robb M. Stewart

OTTAWA--Home sales in Canada are set to slip slightly this year despite some life returning the housing market in recent months, as supply shortages and a headwind from a declining population look set to weigh.

National sales of existing homes rose a modest 0.5% in June from the month before, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Wednesday.

After a weak start to the year for resales, the latest advance builds on a 5.5% jump in sales in May and a 0.9% advance in April to put nationwide activity roughly 7% above where it stood in March, the association said.

"June's housing numbers continued to build momentum following the late start to the year in May, with virtually every metric moving in the right direction," Shaun Cathcart, CREA's senior economist, said.

Fixed mortgage rates have eased from the recent peak in April, and interest-rate increases from the Bank of Canada look less likely than they did just a month ago, which is positive for prospective buyers, Cathcart said.

Despite the optimism, the real-estate association revised slightly lower its projections for the housing market this year, following what it said was a delayed start to a long-awaited recovery that should still see a rise in activity in the second half of 2026.

Home sales in June on an unadjusted basis were 0.9% above year-earlier levels, but the association said the number of newly listed properties slid 1.1% month-over-month, a second consecutive fall. The CREA said there were 208,578 properties listed for sale across real-estate systems at the end of last month, up 0.6% from a year earlier and 0.8% above the long-term average for the time of year.

The association's data indicated that benchmark house prices, calculated in a similar fashion to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, were unchanged from the prior month and down 3.6% on the same month last year.

The Bank of Canada officials are set to decide on interest rates Wednesday. Officials are widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged for the sixth time in a row as inflation remains too hot to consider easing and the economy too weak for a rate increase.

CREA said it now expects 463,336 residential properties to change hands this year. That would represent a slight fall of 1.4% from last year, and marks a change from a mid-April forecast for a modest rise in sales.

The shift reflects a faster-than-expected slowdown in activity in regions facing a sharp reduction in population growth and historic supply shortages, specifically Quebec and the East Coast, the association said. Ontario is now the only province forecast to see sales rise in 2026.

The association projects the national average home price will rise by 1.1% on an annual basis, to 688,710 Canadian dollars (US$486,429) this year. That is little changed from its April forecast and covers declines of less than 1% in British Columbia and Ontario and slowing price growth in other provinces, it said.

For 2027, CREA estimates home sales across the country will climb 3.7%, to 480,567, while the average home price looks set to rise 1.1%, to C$694,164.

Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com

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The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board earlier in the month said residential sales were down 13.3% in May compared with a year earlier while new listings climbed 14%. Still, on a seasonally adjusted basis transaction increased by 8.4%.

"The issue is a lack of economic confidence. Once households are convinced that trade stability with the United States will be established and/or real options to mitigate our reliance on the United States exist, home sales will pick up," said Jason Mercer, the Toronto board's chief information officer.

The Quebec real estate market remains resilient. Total sales across the province were up 10% in May on last year and have rise 12% year-to-date, while new listings were up 10% for the month, according to data compiled by the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2026 05:14 ET (09:14 GMT)