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Corn Falls on Drier Forecast — Daily Grain Highlights

By Kirk Maltais

 

--Corn for July delivery fell 1.6%, to $7.86 3/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, amid forecasts calling for drier and warmer weather in crop-planting areas otherwise deluged by rain.

--Soybeans for July delivery fell 1.5%, to $16.22 a bushel.

--Wheat for July delivery rose 0.2%, to $11.08 1/2 a bushel.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Turning the Corner: Potential drying in otherwise wet areas in the U.S. Corn Belt sent CBOT most-active grain futures mostly lower today. "Losses are greatest for corn and soybeans, which face mostly favorable weather next week," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. DTN forecasts that weather patterns are shifting over the next 7-10 days "to benefit U.S. corn planting"--with models showing a drier airflow to come from the south to dry the ground, in addition to higher temperatures.

Soyoil Stress: Soyoil futures are down again today, retreating from record-highs as palm oil prices overseas also slide. Expectations that Indonesia will soon lift its ban on palm oil exports are a source of that pressure. "Palm oil fell another 5% overnight and that is weighing on soybean oil," said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note. Mr. Reilly adds that an improved weather forecast is also weighing on soybeans, which is also weighing on the grains complex overall. CBOT soyoil futures finished today down 1.2%.

 

INSIGHTS

 

Widespread Drought: In addition to wheat crop shortfalls forecast in India, which has that country considering restricting exports of the grain, shortfalls are now being forecast for France on dry conditions. "The grains crop in France is facing irreversible damage due to the extreme drought," says Commerzbank in a note--citing forecasts that France may have had the least rainfall year-to-date that it has seen in over 20 years. France is the EU's biggest wheat producer and exporter.

Stepping Back: Global prices for some food items, including vegetable oils and cereals, have retreated from record highs reached in March, the U.N. FAO reported today. Through April, the FAO's vegetable oil price index fell 5.7%, while the cereal index fell 0.7%. This comes after the FAO reported last month that indexes through March were at an all-time high. "End users and importers have aimed to close the supply gap, locking in supply from outside the typical trade routes," said Tim Worledge of Fastmarkets. "Russian exports have been more robust than had been expected, while Ukrainian exporters have strained every sinew to use whatever logistical options remain open to them."

 

AHEAD:

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

 

Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 06, 2022 14:59 ET (18:59 GMT)

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