By Sarah Nassauer and Suzanne Kapner
Americans went online to purchase holiday gifts and score Black Friday deals they once crowded into malls to grab, as the coronavirus pandemic accelerated the yearslong remaking of the U.S. retail landscape.
Roughly half as many people visited stores on Black Friday as they did last year, according to research firms that track foot traffic. Meanwhile, online spending jumped 22% from a year ago, making it the second best day ever measured by Adobe Analytics.
It is unclear whether an early start to the holiday shopping season, the online Black Friday surge and an expected record day on Cyber Monday will be enough to offset the money lost from in-person shopping for many chains.
Heading into the critical season, U.S. consumer spending has been strong despite the economic shocks from Covid-19. The National Retail Federation, a trade group, has forecast that holiday sales will increase at least 3.6% to about $755 billion, including at least 20% growth from online shopping to about $202 billion.
This year, web shoppers on Amazon.com Inc. or Best Buy Co. could get many of the same deals that stores once dangled only to those who lined up overnight. Those who did venture out made fewer stops and increasingly turned to big-box chains like Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. that sell everything from lettuce to Legos, according to the foot-traffic data, shoppers and retail analysts.
Christina Preza was browsing Christmas decorations inside a Walmart store on Black Friday. The 60-year-old executive has been spending more money at Walmart since the pandemic started, she said, because she is trying to limit her time inside stores for health reasons and is shopping more online. "It's easier to buy all in one shop because I'm going about every two weeks," she said.
The well-worn formula of one-stop shopping has proven especially lucrative during the pandemic. Big-box stores with groceries were deemed essential and allowed to stay open when department stores and malls were closed. Plus, Walmart and Target already offered curbside services in addition to online ordering.
Some of the big-box stores' pandemic advantages were on display over the Black Friday weekend. This year many retailers closed on Thanksgiving Day, instead offering holiday deals both online and in stores as early as the first week of October. Online sales have jumped, favoring Amazon and those chains with robust e-commerce operations.
On Black Friday online sales hit $9 billion, up 22% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics, which measures 80 of the top 100 U.S. e-commerce sites. The gain was near the low end of Adobe's forecast, which had projected growth of between 20% and 42% from last year.
It was the second biggest online-sales day, after Cyber Monday 2019 when sales hit $9.4 billion, according to Adobe. The firm expects this Monday to set a new record, with online sales of at least $10.8 billion or growth of at least 15% from last year.
Meanwhile, foot traffic to stores on Black Friday fell 48% this year from last year, said RetailNext, which provides cameras, software and analytics to thousands of U.S. stores and shopping centers. Sensormatic Solutions, another tracking firm with cameras in stores, said in-store traffic fell 52% on Black Friday compared with last year.
Both companies said their data showed spending outpaced foot traffic because shoppers purchased at the stores they did visit. "Customers, if they chose to shop in stores, they chose to be a little more thoughtful about where they wanted to shop," said Brian Field, a senior director at Sensormatic.
Spending at physical stores fell about 30% on Black Friday, estimates RetailNext, with apparel, footwear and jewelry all down more than 50%. In-store spending fell the most in the Northeast, down 52%, and least in the South, which fell 42%.
Black Friday was a continuation of a trend that has emerged since Covid-19-related restrictions in March. Cautious consumers are making fewer trips out of their homes and stocking up when they do. Some are adding higher-margin items such as clothing and cosmetics to their carts in the same places they buy groceries or household essentials.
"Am I spending more at Target? Yes, exclamation point, yes," said Amanda Romeo, a 39-year-old inside a Target in upstate New York with her 11-year-old daughter on Black Friday.
Ms. Romeo discovered Target's curbside pickup service for online orders early in the pandemic and is now a heavy user, she said. She goes to stores, often Target, as an occasional outing, she said.
"There is a little something for everyone. I can get milk. I can get toilet paper," she said. "I can get this princess dress for my niece," she said holding up a red velvet dress embellished with Disney characters.
The pandemic winners and losers were clear when a parade of retailers released earnings reports in recent weeks. Target said comparable sales, those from stores and websites operating for at least 12 months, rose 21%, boosted by a 155% surge in online sales. Walmart, the country's largest retailer by revenue, reported comparable U.S. sales up 6.4% as online sales nearly doubled.
In contrast, many department stores, apparel and specialty retailers, already weakened before the pandemic as more shopping shifted online, are now mostly weaker. Macy's Inc. comparable sales fell around 20% in the most recent quarter. Kohl's Corp. sales declined 14%, and T.J. Maxx parent TJX Cos., which had strong sales before the pandemic, reported a 3% decrease.
Shoppers are still gravitating to retailers that align with pandemic shopping trends, such as comfy clothes and home goods, said David Bassuk, global co-head of the retail practice at AlixPartners. But big-box retailers are gaining market share by offering products "the way the consumer wants it -- accessible, easy -- and they are able to make more money at it."
Permanent store closures hit a record in the first half of the year and several chains, including J.C. Penney Co. and J.Crew Group, filed for bankruptcy protection. Penney is closing hundreds of stores and selling most of its business to two big mall owners while J.Crew emerged with new owners. Meanwhile, many small retail businesses have also struggled to grab the same percentage of business without robust e-commerce supply chains and technology.
Retail executives and industry groups are pushing to keep stores and malls open as coronavirus cases surge across the country. They are trying to avoid, in the critical holiday season, the restrictions and closures that crippled many chains during the spring.
"Consumers have evolved their purchasing behavior," said Matthew Shay, chief executive of the National Retail Federation, an industry group. "They are trying to limit the number of trips they make and bundling purchases. Nevertheless, those retailers who have a particular expertise are finding ways to compete."
Beleaguered department stores have a role to play in a post-Covid-19 shopping world, said Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette. "There is room for us," he said in an interview before Thanksgiving. "Customers need help developing their styles. They look to us to help them do that."
Write to Sarah Nassauer at email@example.com and Suzanne Kapner at Suzanne.Kapner@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 29, 2020 16:09 ET (21:09 GMT)Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.