US Economic Outlook: Q2 2026
How will artifical intelligence investment shape US economic growth and Fed policy?
AI spending is real, measurable, and consequential—but its economic footprint is more complex than the headlines imply. The report directly addresses five persistent myths about AI's economic impact, including the claim that AI's GDP contribution is negligible. The data shows otherwise: AI investment was a measured contribution 0.4% to aggregate GDP growth in 2025.A slowdown in AI capital expenditure—projected for 2027—would reduce one of the primary drivers of recent growth. In that environment, monetary policy becomes the critical stabilizing lever. Understanding the timeline and magnitude of that transition matters for fixed income positioning, equity sector allocation, and client communication around economic expectations.
The Morningstar Q2 Economic Outlook delivers updated forecasts on key topics, including:
- Tariffs
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- GDP
- Consumer spending
- Labor market
Download the report to explore our latest economic insights and position your clients for success.
