US Economic Outlook: Q4 2024

New tariff and immigration policies are unlikely to interfere with the soft landing of the economy.

As the end of 2024 approaches, GDP growth has continued to pleasantly surprise. While it is expected to slow, it should remain above recessionary levels and pick back up again in 2026. The unemployment rate ticked slightly upward, while inflation has run slightly below target. Inflation is projected to normalize down to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% by 2025 and we expect more aggressive rate cuts in line to sustain economic growth.

Most notably, a new administration spotlights crucial tariff and immigration policy shifts that are likely to create moderate impact within various industries.

The Morningstar fourth-quarter economic outlook updates our forecasts for the following topics:

• Inflation
• Interest rates
• Immigration policy
• GDP
• AI & real estate investment
• The Federal Reserve
• Consumer spending

Download the full report to explore more on how we’ve assessed the latest economic trends and predictions—and what they mean for your clients’ portfolios.