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Moderna Inc

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Moderna: RSV Vaccine Approval Marks Beginning of Expansion Beyond Covid

We're maintaining our $227 fair value estimate for Moderna following the Food and Drug Administration approval of mResvia, the firm's mRNA-based vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, in adults 60 and older. As the second mRNA-based vaccine from Moderna's pipeline, we think this marks a transition point for the firm—which has a broad pipeline across infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases—where mRNA technology could provide differentiated products. Despite strong share performance this year, shares are still trading at more than a 30% discount to our fair value estimate. While we do not award Moderna with an economic moat, we think the firm is making steady progress toward establishing a competitive advantage with its mRNA platform. Beyond RSV, we expect phase 3 data for both a combination covid/flu vaccine as well as a novel CMV vaccine later this year.

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