US Refining: 2026 Q1
Fallout from the Iran war is creating a windfall for refiners, but it results in overvalued shares.
US refiners entered 2026 with strong momentum and recent geopolitical disruptions have accelerated it further. The fallout from the Iran conflict has tightened global supply, driven margins sharply higher, and lifted earnings expectations across the sector. Yet while near-term fundamentals look compelling, share prices have surged even faster, raising important questions about valuation and sustainability.
In the US Refining Pulse: Q1 2026, Morningstar’s equity research team examines how soaring diesel margins, constrained inventories, and widening crude spreads are reshaping the competitive landscape for US refiners. Download your copy here.
