US Economic Outlook: Q4 2025
What are the long-term impacts of tariff rates on GDP and trade as we measure US economic growth forecast in 2026?
Tariffs are a critical factor shaping the US economic landscape. In the near term, they contribute to rising consumer prices and inflation, likely peaking in 2026 as businesses continue to pass costs onto consumers. The longer-term impact includes a slowing GDP rate until 2027 when the tariff effects taper off and economic policies encourage normal growth rates.
Artificial intelligence is also not yet delivering a major productivity boost, but it is propelling the economy's demand side through investment and stock market wealth. These changes are continually monitored as our analysts understand further how it shapes prices, business profitability, and tech-related investments.
The Morningstar Q4 Economic Outlook delivers updated forecasts on key topics, including:
- Tariffs
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- GDP
- Consumer spending
- Labor market
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