US Economic Outlook: Q3 2025
What are the long-term impacts of tariff rates on GDP and trade as we measure US economic growth forecast in 2025?
A rebound in second-quarter GDP growth offers a positive signal, yet the full impact of new tariffs has yet to be felt. However, GDP growth is trending downward, projected to average 2.0% year-over-year in the second half of 2025, compared to 2.8% in 2024. The underlying factors, including more cautious consumers and the lingering effects of high interest rates, are contributing towards this negative economic activity trend.
While the initial rise in inflation has been milder than feared, companies will face increasing pressure to pass tariff costs to consumers. Learn how this will affect prices and business profitability in the coming months.
Artificial intelligence is also not yet delivering a major productivity boost, but it is propelling the economy's demand side through investment and stock market wealth. These changes are continually monitored as our analysts understand further how it shapes prices, business profitability, and tech-related investments.
The Morningstar Q3 Economic Outlook delivers updated forecasts on key topics, including:
- Tariffs
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- GDP
- Consumer spending
- Labor market
Download the report to explore our latest economic insights and position your clients for success.
