How to Invest in GLP-1 Drugs

Since 2022, the GLP-1 drug market has nearly quadrupled in size as more patients use them to help treat diabetes and obesity. We expect the market to reach $180 billion by 2034 based on the drug innovations in the pipeline.

While we think Eli Lilly LLY will continue to hold more than 50% market share, we see underappreciated room for innovation from Novo Nordisk NVO and new entrants. Here’s how financial advisors and clients can invest in obesity drugs as part of their long-term strategy.

For a complete industry breakdown, including the public and private firm pipeline, download the full GLP-1 Market report.

Overall, our diabetes and obesity market model reaches $180 billion by 2034, ahead of consensus.

While our near-term estimates appear in line with consensus, we think the market is generally undervaluing Novo Nordisk’s ability to reinforce its position in the market with new drugs. We also think the market underestimates the ability of new entrants to stand out in the late 2020s.

Eli Lilly held more than a 57% share of monthly US prescriptions for diabetes and obesity as of the end of the third quarter of 2025. Novo Nordisk held a 43% market share.

Growth prospects for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have diverged over the past year. Novo's first-to-market leadership position with Ozempic/Rybelsus and Wegovy has been eroded by Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound.

Pipeline data favored Lilly as well—until Lilly’s oral GLP-1 treatment earned mixed Attain-1 results. That left the door open for Novo Nordisk to build durable share in a new oral market in 2026.

On November 6, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly announced a deal with the Trump administration to lower obesity drug prices in several channels. In exchange, the companies will see expanded Medicare access and a three-year tariff grace period.

The deal will force lower direct-to-patient pricing in 2026 in exchange for Medicare access. However, it doesn’t directly affect private coverage.

The new direct-to-patient system bypasses insurance, requiring a simple out-of-pocket payment from the patient.

Obesity is particularly well suited to this model. Insurance coverage is still mixed, and many patients can get prescriptions but can’t afford list prices at brick-and-mortar pharmacies.

We think Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have a head start in moving into adjacent indications for Alzheimer’s and MASH. However, Novo Nordisk recently announced the failure of two phase 3 trials testing semaglutide to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease.

We expect volume growth to drive overall sales growth, regardless of obesity insurance coverage, as new indications grow.

Looking ahead, new therapies and combinations could make new obesity drugs stand out in the market. If clients are interested in GLP-1 stocks, advisors should evaluate companies with offerings like:

• New injectables with superior efficacy or monthly, vs. weekly, injections. Therapies that aim for 25% weight loss could fill an unmet need among patients with more severe obesity.
• Oral treatments that improve convenience. We expect more than 20% of global obesity drug market sales to be oral drugs by 2034.
• Treatments with better quality of weight loss. New targets and combinations could help reduce the loss of lean mass, creating opportunities among the elderly obese.
• New therapies with more tolerable side effects. GLP-1 therapy can cause nausea as blood sugar levels rise, while amylin could allow patients to enjoy food but feel full faster. That could have important implications for drawing patients into therapy and for long-term compliance.

Eli Lilly LLY holds the greatest share of the market with Mounjaro in diabetes and Zepbound in obesity. However, high-efficacy and muscle loss programs aren’t derisked. We also think momentum has taken Lilly’s shares above their fair value.

Lilly's cardiometabolic revenue looks poised to surpass $100 billion by 2034. We based our expectations on their current tirzepatide offering as well as future launches of an oral drug and a more-tolerable GLP-1 alternative.

Novo Nordisk NVO faces competition from Eli Lilly and unbranded compounded drugs. However, the launch of an oral drug, advancements in efficacy, and acquisitions could catalyze the stock.

While we think Lilly will hold more than 50% share for the foreseeable future, we see underappreciated room for innovation from Novo and new entrants.

• Roche Holding ROG has made significant progress building a diversified pipeline with acquired GLP-1 programs, early-stage collaborations, and an in-house muscle mass-sparing opt.
• Pfizer PFE’s $10 billion Metsera acquisition brings a diverse pipeline and possible differentiators, including monthly dosing, improved tolerability, and strong efficacy.
• AstraZeneca AZN has an early-stage oral drug in development, although we have more limited data on these programs at this point.
• AbbVie ABBV’s Gubra acquisition brought an injectable amylin in clinical trials that could complement its cosmetic business and help extend the market into the overweight setting.
• Merck & Co Inc. MRK’s Hansoh Pharma deal added an oral GLP-1 drug in earlier-stage clinical trials. The company could double down on acquisitions to strengthen its portfolio.
• Amgen AMGN has built its pipeline internally for more convenient dosing.
• Structure Therapeutics Inc ADR GPCR’s broad small-molecule pipeline could make it an attractive target for acquisition.

Several thematic index funds offer concentrated exposure to obesity drugs, but none earn recommendations from Morningstar analysts.

• Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF OZEM falls behind on a number of key metrics in an increasingly competitive industry. It earned a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Negative.
• Amplify Weight Loss Drug & Treatment ETF THNR is differentiated from much of the competition, but its concentrated lineup of largely thematic exchange-traded funds harbors considerable risk. It earned a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Negative.
• Tema Obesity & Cardiometabolic ETF HRTS is a relative newcomer with only a two-year record. It earned a Morningstar Medalist Rating of Neutral.

Healthcare or biotechnology-focused funds offer more diversified exposure to the broader healthcare sector. However, advisors should be wary of high fund fees and expense ratios that often come with thematic funds.

Advisors can use Morningstar investment research tools to evaluate overall portfolio fit. Here's how:

• See current portfolio exposure to GLP-1 names and healthcare sector overall.
• Review funds with concentrated or major ownership in GLP-1 stocks.
• Compare the before and after of investment selection decisions to assess the overall impact on the portfolio.

The full GLP-1 market research report offers more context and depth on the obesity drug market, with data on:

• Our market model and timeline.
• Trends in US access and pricing.
• Potential obesity drug acquisitions.
• Private and public firm pipelines for drug development.