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The Morningstar Model of U.S. Retirement Outcomes

The Morningstar Model of U.S. Retirement Outcomes is a complex simulation model that enables our researchers to study retirement readiness across the United States. The model helps them to predict the effects of policy, product design, behavioral changes, and other variables on retirement readiness. The results can be broken down by age, wage, family status, race and ethnicity, industry, and more. 

About the Model

Our model not only sets a new standard in retirement research, but we’ll also be able to identify actionable insights for policymakers and plan sponsors to improve product design, all with the goal of helping more Americans reach the retirements they want.”

Spencer Look

Associate Director of Retirement Studies

WISH Granted: How a National Long-Term Services and Supports Insurance Program Could Boost Retirement Outcomes

After we showed how devastating long-term services and supports (LTSS) can be to retirement income adequacy in our last publication, our new publication analyzes how valuable a proposed legislative initiative may be to some in an attempt to mitigate its impact. The Well-Being Insurance for Seniors to be at Home (or WISH) Act would create a federal insurance program that provides benefits to those with a continual LTSS need beginning after a waiting period that ranges from one to five years, depending on one's income history. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the WISH Act on Gen Z, millennial, and Gen X retirement-income adequacy using the Morningstar Model of US Retirement Outcomes. 

Learn More

Explore more information about the model here. 

Morningstar Model of U.S. Retirement Outcomes FAQ

Morningstar Model of U.S. Retirement Outcomes Technical Appendix

Beyond the Retirement Crisis Headlines Infographic

The Evolution of Retirement-Income Adequacy Under ERISA Infographic

The Retirement Savings for Americans Act: Increased Access, Worse Retirement Outcomes Overall Infographic

Read the Papers

Read the publications based on the model here.

Beyond the Retirement Crisis Headlines: Why Employer-Sponsored Plans Are the Key to Retirement Adequacy for Today's Workers

The Evolution of Retirement-Income Adequacy Under ERISA With a Focus on Defined-Contribution Plans: A Review of the Status Quo, Counterfactual Evidence, and an Analysis of Changes for the Future

The Retirement Savings for Americans Act: Increased Access, Worse Retirement Outcomes Overall

The Impact of the Saver's Match on Retirement Wealth

The Overlooked Cost: How Long-Term Services and Supports Impacts Retirement-Income Adequacy

WISH Granted: How a National Long-Term Services and Supports Insurance Program Could Boost Retirement Outcomes

Morningstar Retirement offers research- and technology-driven products and services to individuals, workplace retirement plans, and other industry players. Associated advisory services are provided by Morningstar Investment Management LLC, a registered investment adviser and subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.

The information contained in this document is the proprietary material of Morningstar. Reproduction, transcription, or other use, by any means, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Morningstar, is prohibited. Opinions expressed are as of the current date; such opinions are subject to change without notice. Morningstar or its subsidiaries shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages, or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use.

This commentary is for informational purposes only. The information, data, analyses, and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice, are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security. Please note that references to specific securities or other investment options within this piece should not be considered an offer (as defined by the Securities and Exchange Act) to purchase or sell that specific investment. The performance data shown represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This commentary contains certain forward-looking statements. We use words such as “expects”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results to differ materially and/or substantially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by those projected in the forward-looking statements for any reason.