Real disposable income growth is down considerably from a year ago, potentially providing less firepower for consumption growth ahead.
Upcoming inflation, consumption, auto, and employment reports will be key factors in the decision.
Barring a disaster, inflation should peak around midyear but stagnant wage growth means there isn't much relief for consumers in sight, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.
Trade has fallen from close to 14% of GDP to just 12%, a drop that is more typically associated with a recession than a midcycle recovery.
Higher inflation and slower employment data are putting all-important consumption growth at risk.
Data and earnings this week provided more signs that demographics remain a major headwind.
As headline inflation catches up with core inflation and wage growth, consumer spending is likely to be crimped.
Sentiment indicators are soaring, but current conditions aren't improving yet, and many potential Trump-administration proposals may not have the hoped-for impact.
A slow economic environment and industry-specific factors are driving private employment growth lower year over year.
Weak November housing data implies that higher rates may be a headwind for 2017 housing growth.
Despite high hopes, we believe 1.9% GDP growth will prove closer to the mark in 2017.
With the impacts of Trump's policies already priced in and current economic data going nowhere fast, the stock market is in no-man's land, writes Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
Even with a possible stimulus package, we think the economy will be hard-pressed to grow much more than 1.5% to 2.0% in 2017.
The continued slowdown in year-over-year employment growth is no reason to panic, but it does mean consumption growth could also slow.
Morningstar’s Bob Johnson thinks headline inflation could rise over the next year, but it is unlikely to trigger a recession.
Our new president will likely inherit an economy that is losing steam.
Lurking behind the stable, more predictable employment numbers is an undeniably sharp decline in monthly job growth rates.
Despite glowing headlines, we think the economy turned in a poor performance in the third quarter.
One by one, the pillars of the U.S. recovery are beginning to fade.
A sloppy retail sales report wasn't as great as it seemed and raises questions concerning economic strength.
Though the market was focused this week on Brexit and the Fed, we remain much more worried about slowing growth in the U.S.