We expect an additional rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, and we are starting to see value emerge within traditional banking.
Regardless of the ultimate effect of the coronavirus on the economy, lower rates today will be a negative for bank profits.
We think a hold on rate movements is the base case for 2020.
Our latest research looks at how banks might be affected at this point in the economic cycle.
The wide-moat firm reported decent fourth-quarter results.
The firm reported stellar fourth-quarter results that were well-above consensus.
We plan to raise our fair value estimate for the narrow-moat firm.
It is clear that the wide-moat firm is still a work in progress, and we are lowering our fair value estimate.
It appears to us that we are now in a holding pattern for rates.
Bank dividend yields are set and look to stay that way.
We think a base case of “no more cuts for now” seems reasonable.
We do not plan to make material changes to our fair value estimate for the narrow-moat financial services firm.
We are lowering our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
The wide-moat firm had a solid third quarter, and we are increasing our fair value estimate to $114.
We still view at least one or two more cuts over the next year as the most likely outcome.
Scandals aside, the bank still has the pieces in place to compete effectively over the long term, and its shares currently look cheap.
We think the dividend payouts on these names are sustainable.
We are incorporating three rate cuts (including this one) through 2020 into our bank forecasts.
The list of potential partners among the large- and midsize regionals is becoming pretty sparse.
The release put slowing household spending in the spotlight, supporting the case that the economic picture remains mixed.
Commentary from the four largest U.S. banks has been positive, and fundamentals still look OK.
Profitability is improving, but growth isn't perfect yet.
We have maintained our underlying rate hike assumptions for our U.S. banking coverage, which includes no rate hikes in 2019.
Industry changes can affect moats and more.
We believe the U.S. banking system is much stronger and more stable than it was a decade ago.
The wide-moat bank is attempting to shake free from its scandals, and we think it could support double-digit dividend growth over the next several years.
The move would create a superregional with roughly $442 billion in assets, the sixth-largest U.S.-based bank.
Expenses are declining and sentiment is improving.
As expected, the Fed didn't raise rates today, and we see signs the central bank has taken a significantly more dovish turn.
We still believe the wide-moat bank has meaningful room to improve returns on equity, but it will be a bumpy ride as the bank remains under the regulatory microscope.
The narrow-moat bank is and has been firing on all cylinders.
Citigroup is meeting its goals, JPMorgan is a top performer, and Wells Fargo disappoints.
Despite only marginal revenue growth, expenses were well-managed and allowed the bank's efficiency ratio and overall profitability to improve.
The bank is currently trading at one of the highest risk adjusted discounts to our fair value estimate among the U.S. money center and regional banks.
The year is starting with more reasonable valuations, and Wells Fargo and KeyCorp are the best risk-adjusted values today.
The Fed is giving a nod to some of the uncertainty regarding the economy and the effects of future hikes and is leaving the door open to slow down future rate increases.
The Fed raised its target rate range to 2.25%-2.5% but took a more dovish tone with future hikes.
With the recent drop in many bank stocks, we are now more positive on the sector and like Wells Fargo and Capital One.
Superb credit quality and declining expenses led to a solid quarter for the narrow-moat bank.
PNC disappointed, but we saw positives in JPMorgan, Citi, and undervalued Wells' releases.
As legal issues fade, operating losses are down, and we are maintaining our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
We’re raising our fair value estimate for the narrow-moat bank after the third-quarter earnings shows the firm firing on all cylinders.
Although the most rate-sensitive banks look fairly valued today, we see more opportunities in the broader sector today than at the start of the year.
The move to raise interest rates was expected, and we see no change to our long-term rate projections.
Nothing in the results materially changes our valuations.
We think these banks will see strong dividend growth and improving returns on equity.
We are maintaining our fair value estimate for the narrow-moat firm.
The bank is still looking to regain its footing, but the pessimism surrounding the stock is an opportunity for investors.
We are maintaining our fair value estimate for the firm after solid second-quarter results.
Though a few banks ran into issues, the overall restrictions imposed by the Fed will not be that significant.