We think a 30% price decline looms.
We see strong switching costs at International Flavors & Fragrances.
Protectionist trade policies aren't enough to change our long-term view.
We now expect prices to rise in 2017 before declining in real terms through our midcycle forecast.
We expect to raise our steel fair value estimates.
Concerns about the growth prospects of the aluminum company's aerospace exposure over a longer time horizon lead us to lower our fair value estimate.
The announcement of additional acquisitions remains a distinct possibility for this steelmaker, thanks to its healthy balance sheet, sizable cash position, and free cash flow generation.
Fundamentals indicate trouble ahead for U.S. steelmakers.