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Special Report

Morningstar's Guide to the Development of a Coronavirus Vaccine

Here's how companies around the world are working toward a treatment.

Around the world, researchers are racing to develop an effective and safe vaccine or treatment for coronavirus, with eyes on clinical trials as well as Wall Street.  

While once prosperous industries crumbled under the pressure of the pandemic, the healthcare sector rose to the challenge, and many pharmaceutical companies became household names this year. Typically, vaccines and treatments require years of testing and production before coming available at scale, however, several companies report that they are on track to have something available as early as the second half of 2020. 

These companies not only possess the most potential to discover a vaccine or treatment but will also play an integral part in how the world will recover from the coronavirus.  

This guide explores outlooks from our analysts, research and trials conducted by the leading pharmaceutical companies, and the most recent updates on developments for a coronavirus vaccine or treatment. 

Maintaining our $85 FVE for Gilead Following Steady Q2
Management raised its product sales guidance for 2020 by a range of $1.2-$2.8 billion after incorporating coronavirus headwinds and highly uncertain sales assumptions for remdesivir. This guidance fits with our assumption of $2 billion in remdesivir sales in 2020, and we're maintaining our $85 per share fair value estimate for the firm.

We Raise Our Fair Value for BioNTech Vaccine Profits
We have added the firm's vaccine candidate to our model with a 60% probability of success.

Drug Pricing Executive Orders Not Likely to Affect FVEs
We don’t expect these actions by President Trump to significantly affect our fair value estimates or moat ratings due to limited details, challenging implementation, and only minor impacts.

Timeline Accelerates for COVID-19 Drug Development
Three new vaccines for coronavirus look poised for emergency use authorization in the U.S. this fall. 

Pfizer, BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccines Fast-Tracked by FDA
We expect no-moat BioNTech and wide-moat Pfizer to move one of the test candidates into the next phase, planned to start as early as this month. 

3 Reasons Healthcare Is Showing Fit Performance  
And what we expect to see moving forward. 

BioNTech and Pfizer Report Good News From Vaccine Trial
A long road lies ahead as the trial continues, but we are maintaining our fair value estimates for the two healthcare firms. 

Gilead Prices Remdesivir Above Our Expectations  
We are raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm after its pricing announcement. 

Undervalued Pfizer Remains Poised for Growth  
Strong cash flows support drug development and a dividend that yields above 4%. 

Early Moderna Data Supports Vaccine by 2021  
We're not expecting any changes to our fair value estimates for vaccine manufacturers, however, as most of the firms in our coverage with vaccine candidates have already stated that selling prices would be at a not-for-profit level.