Experts Forecast Long-Term Stock and Bond Returns: 2020 Edition
Our annual compilation of capital markets return assumptions, from BlackRock to Vanguard.
While recessionary worries gripped the market in 2018, economic news turned positive in 2019 and has remained so into January of this year. Accordingly, both the stock and bond markets have soared over the past year. Both asset classes have enjoyed an exceptionally strong decade, too: The S&P 500 has gained more than 13% since 2010, while the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index has returned a less princely--but still respectable--3.5%.
But are stocks and bonds likely to repeat those strong gains over the next decade? Not likely, according to my latest survey of capital markets forecasts released by leading investment firms. Thanks to equity valuations that are even more constrained than they were a year ago, most of the shops I featured in my now-annual compilation are anticipating meager returns from the stock market over the next decade. And with bond yields a good predictor of what fixed-income assets are likely to earn in the decade ahead, most firms acknowledge that today's yields (just over 2% for the Aggregate Index) portend thin gruel for bond investors, too.
Christine Benz does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.
Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.
We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.
We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.
How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:
To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.
Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.
To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.
Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.